Regulator gives Tories green light to keep saying ‘welfare is spiralling out of control’… even though it’s not

The Conservative party has dodged regulatory action on its repeated false claims that spending on social security is “spiralling out of control”.

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has been reviewing a complaint from Disability News Service (DNS) about inaccurate and misleading claims by senior Conservative figures that “welfare spending” is “out of control” or “spiralling”.

DNS pointed out in the complaint that Office for Budget Responsibility figures show that total spending on social security as a proportion of GDP is roughly stable and is predicted to be at the same level in 2030-31 as it will be in 2026-27, at 11.2 per cent*.

But OSR has decided that the examples of Tory statements provided by DNS “do not meet the threshold for further regulatory intervention”.

One of the examples passed to OSR of senior Tory figures making such claims was when shadow chancellor Mel Stride falsely stated: “So where Labour have failed, we will bring down our spiralling welfare bill.”

Another saw party leader Kemi Badenoch (pictured) saying publicly: “Let’s agree a way to bring welfare spending down… There will always be some people who need support… but the current system is out of control.”

The notes issued by her party alongside this speech stated that “the welfare bill is spiralling out of control”.

Meanwhile, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately has told MPs: “He knows the benefits bill is out of control; he knows that the public are sick of seeing their taxes go on ever higher welfare handouts…”

And Peter Bedford, Whately’s shadow parliamentary private secretary, said in parliament: “People see many others gaming the system, while their taxes continue to rise to fund a welfare bill that has spiralled out of control.”

Last month, the UK Statistics Authority, on behalf of OSR, told Badenoch her party should correct another untrue claim – exposed by fact-checking charity Full Fact – that “for the first time ever, the total welfare bill is now higher than total receipts from income tax”.

But OSR has now confirmed to DNS that it will not make a “formal intervention” over the repeated untrue claims by the Conservative party on “spiralling” social security spending.

Ed Humpherson, OSR’s head, said this was “because the statements use qualitative characterisations such as ‘spiralling’ and ‘out of control’, rather than making precise factual claims about defined statistical measures”.

He said: “This is different to a statement such as ‘for the first time ever, the total welfare bill is now higher than total receipts from income tax’, which is [a] precise factual claim about defined statistical measures.

“In this latter instance we were able to step in, and did so firmly.”

He added: “We cannot presume that, when a politician says, ‘the benefits bill is spiralling out of control,’ they are specifically referring to the historic trend and forecast analysis of total social security spending as a percentage of GDP.

“As is often the nature of political debate, such language can be drawing on a range of concerns about different parts of the welfare system or may be intended as a broad political characterisation rather than a claim about a particular statistical series.”

And he said the claims made by senior Conservative politicians were “an expression of political opinion rather than a direct reference to, or misuse of, a specific statistical output” and so “falls outside the scope of our remit for formal intervention”.

The Conservative party had not commented by noon today (Thursday).

*The proportion of GDP (the size of the country’s economy in a particular year) spent on social security, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR): 2010-11: 12.0%, 2011-12: 12.0%, 2012-13: 12.1%, 2013-14: 11.7%, 2014-15: 11.5%, 2015-16: 11.3%, 2016-17: 10.9%, 2017-18: 10.5%, 2018-19: 10.3%. 2019-20: 10.2%, 2020-21: 11.9%, 2021-22: 10.4%, 2022-23: 10.0%, 2023-24: 10.9%, 2024-25: 10.7%, 2025-26 (latest OBR forecast): 10.9%, 2026-27 (latest OBR forecast): 11.2%, 2027-28 (latest OBR forecast): 11.1%, 2028-29 (latest OBR forecast): 11.0%, 2029-30 (latest OBR forecast): 11.1%, 2030-31 (latest OBR forecast): 11.2% [see chart 5.2, Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2024 and table 4.1, Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2026]