New official figures disprove claims that social security spending is ‘spiralling out of control’

New official figures published alongside this week’s spring statement have again disproved claims that spending on “welfare” is “spiralling out of control”.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook report on Tuesday, and it showed the proportion of GDP* spent on social security is predicted to be at the same level in 2030-31 as it will be in 2026-27, at 11.2 per cent**.

This will be lower than it was in 2010-11 (12 per cent) and for every subsequent year under the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition until 2015-16, under a Conservative government, when it was 11.3 per cent.

The OBR report also shows that social security spending was lower in 2024-25 – the first year of the Labour government – than predicted by the OBR last March (10.7 per cent against a predicted 10.9 per cent)***.

The report does show that spending on social security is predicted to be slightly higher over the next four years, compared with OBR’s March 2025 forecast, due in part to decisions made by chancellor Rachel Reeves at November’s budget****.

The report points to increases in pensions and health-related benefits as the “main drivers of the projected increase in welfare spending” between 2024-25 and 2030-31, including higher than expected demand for child disability benefits and higher supported housing rents.

Among those exaggerating the increase in social security spending this week was former work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, now the Conservative shadow chancellor, who told MPs on Tuesday that the “welfare bill” was “spiralling ever upwards”, and that his party would cut social security spending by £23 billion a year if it ever won power.

He later told BBC Breakfast that the “welfare bill” was “spiralling out of control”.

Among those calling out the media and political figures exaggerating the figures on X/Twitter was the grassroots, user-led mental health group Recovery in the Bin (RiTB), which told one Conservative commentator: “Welfare spending is NOT spiralling stop promoting that lie.”

Another was the “DWP decoder” account, which pledged to donate money to the re-election campaign of “any MP that calls out the blatant lie about welfare costs ‘spiralling out of control’ and who highlights that inflation affects the cost of welfare too”.

*Gross domestic product, the size of the country’s economy in a particular year

**Chapter four of OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2026, table 4.1, shows welfare spending as a percentage of GDP: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026/

***Chapter five of OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook – March 2025, chart 5.2, shows welfare spending as a percentage of GDP: https://obr.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2025/

****It is now forecast to be 11.2 per cent of GDP in 2026-27 (compared with last year’s forecast of 11.0 per cent), 11.1 in 2027-28 (compared with 10.8 last year), 11.0 in 2028-29 (compared with 10.7 per cent), 11.1 in 2029-30 (compared with 10.8), and 11.2 per cent of GDP in 2030-31, the same level as 2026-27