Tories say benefits bill is spiralling, but again refuse to comment on official stats that show it’s really not

The Conservative party has again refused to explain why it is warning of a “spiralling” benefits bill when spending on social security is stable… and has been for years.

For the second time in two months, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch (pictured) has called for cuts, this time warning of the need to find ways of “really bringing down the welfare bill” and claiming the “current system is out of control”.

In a speech to the Institute of Chartered Accountants, she called for the Labour government to meet her team to “agree a way to bring welfare spending down”.

The party has now been asked twice by Disability News Service (DNS) why it keeps arguing that social security spending is “spiralling out of control” when figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) show it is set to be lower this year – as a proportion of GDP* – than it was in 2015-16 and 2010-11, and is even set to fall slightly in 2027-28**.

And social security and disability minister Sir Stephen Timms admitted to the Commons work and pensions committee earlier this year that working-age social security spending as a percentage of GDP “isn’t much more now than it was before the 2008-2010 recession”.

Despite these figures, the Conservative party insists that the level of spending is not “sustainable”, with Badenoch saying she wants to help the prime minister “in the national interest” with “really bringing down the welfare bill”.

The party continues to insist that spending is “spiralling” even though it quoted figures in its press release about the Badenoch speech that are taken from the same OBR report that shows social security spending is stable.

In response to the press release, DNS asked the party to confirm if Badenoch accepted that OBR figures showed social security spending was set to be lower this year – as a proportion of GDP – than it was in 2015-16 and 2010-11, and was set to fall slightly in 2027-28.

The party had not responded by noon today (Thursday).

When DNS put a similar question to the party in July – after Badenoch warned of a “ticking time bomb” caused by increased benefits spending – a Conservative party press officer said: “I don’t think we are going to provide further comment.”

*Gross domestic product, the size of the country’s economy in a particular year

**See chapter five of OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2024, chart 5.2

A note from the editor:

Please consider making a voluntary financial contribution to support the work of DNS and allow it to continue producing independent, carefully-researched news stories that focus on the lives and rights of disabled people and their user-led organisations.

Please do not contribute if you cannot afford to do so, and please note that DNS is not a charity. It is run and owned by disabled journalist John Pring and has been from its launch in April 2009.

Thank you for anything you can do to support the work of DNS…